The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
“Although Howe acknowledges the contingency of history and free choice, his hypothesis that humans have repeatable behaviors and social interactions is hard to refute.”
Does history repeat itself? Many historians think there are certain common themes throughout history, but author Neil Howe has taken this concept to a whole other level with what could be one of the most thought provoking and controversial books of the year. Building upon nearly a quarter century of research and writing, the author has developed an extraordinary model that history does indeed repeat itself, and more remarkably, it does so with a periodicity that extends back nearly 500 years.
Howe’s thesis is built around two complimentary ideas. First, there are definable seasons of history that last from 80 to 100 years, and they are succeeded or “turned” in succession with a strong regularity, usually by some trigger event that can also be defined throughout history. He defines these seasons as High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. Moreover, functioning within and upon these seasons and turnings are four well defined generations that are both defined by these turnings and affect each successive turning as the generations ages and moves up the maturity ladder, so to speak, and assumes leadership in society during each succeeding season.
For modern readers, he uses our current definition of generations such as the GI Generation, Boomer, Gen X, Millennial, and what he terms the Homeland generation. However, he also categorizes generations in slightly different manner and weaves them together as the Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad archetypes, each with the own characteristics that repeat along with the cycle of his seasons. He spends several chapters to develop his theses with numerous historical examples of the differing seasons, merging all these pieces seamlessly together into an amazing cycle that seems irrefutable.
His thesis is well developed and compelling, and Howe examines all the facets of society that both influence and are affected by the cyclic turns of time and generations. The interactions of politics, economics, cultural and societal norms are compared and contrasted across time along with the key turning points that cause massive change, particularly war, epidemics, and social upheaval.
His evidence is overwhelming, and the clever use of multiple tables to highlight these seasons and their cause and effect will give the reader pause. For anyone who questioned whether World War I was a catalyst for World War II or if 9/11 created the Great Recession of 2008, Howe not only shows how these pieces fit together, but he also goes back 200 years to show that although the particular events may change, the inevitable cause and effect of history becomes as regular as the tides upon the seashore. Sometimes the reader could get buried under the amazing amount of details as he makes his argument, but the effort is well worthwhile as many events in American history now seem to make a more coherent whole rather than a series of isolated actions by individuals. Although Howe acknowledges the contingency of history and free choice, his hypothesis that humans have repeatable behaviors and social interactions is hard to refute.
Of course, the author leads the reader through the first half of the book to get to the real purpose of this book, examining how the current crisis came about, how long it could last, when it might end, and how it will affect the current four generations of American society today with their vastly different upbringing, worldview, and desires. This projection is grounded in solid history and prior experience and will offer the reader both hope and trepidation as the alternatives he investigates are either grim or optimistic depending on the actions of the generations.
What does the future hold for American and the world as the Boomers age and the Millennials begin to assume the reins of societal leadership? Where does Gen X fit in and how will the current generation raised in the post-pandemic world fit into this new world? These are important questions, and Howe offers some important historical lessons to show that history does indeed have its own cycle and rhythm that could offer some answers.